Patriots' defense making the most of spare parts
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01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A year ago, Sterling Moore was taking in the Super Bowl as a spectator, perched way up in the rafters of spacious Cowboys Stadium as a college senior at nearby Southern Methodist University.
The rookie cornerback will have a far better view of this year's game, and a well-deserved upgrade to boot after coming up with perhaps the most important play of the New England Patriots' nail-biting win in the AFC Championship.
Though Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff's stunning miss of a short field goal attempt in the closing seconds may forever stand as the signature moment of the Ravens' 23-20 loss to the Patriots, Moore's heads-up negation of a would-be touchdown pass shortly prior to Cundiff's shank was equally vital to New England earning a trip to Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. The previously- unknown 21-year-old smartly jarred the ball out of the arms of Baltimore receiver Lee Evans in the end zone with 22 seconds left, preserving the Pats' tenuous three-point advantage and gaining a surge of instant notoriety in the process.
Moore, just one moth removed from toiling on New England's practice squad, also broke up a pass on the ensuing play that would have given the Ravens a first down and forced Cundiff to be sent out for his now-famous blunder.
"When you think about it, that play is our season," said Patriots safety James Ihedigbo. "That's everything we worked for right there and [Moore] knocks that ball out of the Lee Evans' hands and comes back again and makes another play on third down. He played amazing, can't say enough about that guy."
While a defense universally regarded as the soft underbelly of the offensively- abundant AFC champions rising to the rescue in such a critical spot seems tinged in irony, having an unproven commodity like Moore emerge as a hero fits in perfectly with a unit that's gotten by with no-names and misfits all throughout the Patriots' successful 2011 run.
Fellow cornerback Kyle Arrington, himself an undrafted free agent who was cut by both Philadelphia and Tampa Bay before finding a home among New England's rag-tag bunch in 2009, tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions this season. Outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich, a two-year starter and one of the defense's smartest and most versatile members, was also released by two other organizations. A front line that kept Ravens All-Pro running back Ray Rice squarely under wraps in the AFC title game contains a seventh-round draft pick (Brandon Deaderick) and a college free agent (Kyle Love).
Ever-resourceful head coach Bill Belichick has utilized avenues even more unusual in a season-long effort to find the correct combination. Reserve receiver and primary punt returner Julian Edelman saw over 25 snaps as a nickel back against Baltimore after Arrington exited with an eye problem. Matthew Slater, also a wide receiver by trade, started three times at safety earlier in the year when a wave of injuries ravaged the secondary's back end.
While that ability to plug holes with scrap-heap talent speaks to the savvy and evaluation skills of Belichick and player personnel director Nick Caserio, New England's reliance on castoffs and obscure players hasn't exactly been by design. Season-ending injuries to regulars such as veteran end Andre Carter, promising rookie corner Ras-I Dowling and safety Josh Barrett have greatly tested the defense's depth, and despite the Patriots' reputation for superb drafts, the team has had a considerable amount of misses on the defensive side in recent years.
New England selected seven defensive players in the first three rounds of the two drafts that followed the franchise's last Super Bowl appearance, the memorable 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Arizona during the 2007 season. The Pats did hit a home run with linebacker Jerod Mayo, a 2008 first-round choice and one of the group's linchpins, and safety Patrick Chung has developed into a reliable contributor since being tabbed in the second round the subsequent year. However, cornerbacks Terrence Wheatley (2nd Round, 2008) and Darius Butler (2nd Round, 2009), linebackers Shawn Crable (3rd Round, 2008) and Tyrone McKenzie (3rd Round, 2009) and lineman Ron Brace (2nd Round, 2009) never panned out, and Brace is the only one of those five that currently remains with the organization.
With all the shuffling and uncertainty, it's not surprising that the patchwork defense struggled for a large portion of 2011, with the Patriots surrendering club worsts for total yards (6,577) and passing yards (4,703) allowed in a season and finishing next-to-last in the NFL in both categories. Opponents eclipsed the 400-yard barrier in nine of New England's 16 regular-season contests.
The performance has been markedly better down the stretch, however, and particularly so during the playoffs. The Patriots yielded a season-low 252 total yards in their 45-10 shellacking of unexpected AFC West winner Denver in the Divisional Round, and the defense continually stood tall at important times in the hard-fought victory over Baltimore, holding the Ravens to only one touchdown in four red-zone visits on the afternoon.
"We've had a lot of things that haven't been perfect out there, but we have everybody that will stand in there and fight and give it their best all the way through, and that's a good place to be and that's what I like about this team," Belichick remarked after the AFC Championship. "They're tough, they're competitive and they really don't lose their confidence or get down on themselves. They just go out there and keep competing and see what happens."
Another example of that resiliency, not to mention Belichick's knack for maximizing the available talent, came after Carter -- an esteemed leader who had racked up 10 sacks through the first 14 games -- tore his quadriceps in a mid-December triumph at Denver. Presumed to be a devastating blow to the pass rush, the Patriots have instead generated an impressive 15 sacks in the four games since he went down.
"This team is [a bunch of] warriors," said longtime tackle Vince Wilfork, who's amassed 3 1/2 sacks over that time frame. "They're a bunch of fighters, coaches and everybody. This whole organization is just a special group of guys and I love playing for guys like this."
Below is a capsule look at the defense of the New England Patriots, with regular season statistics in parentheses:
Defensive Line: After employing a four-man front for most of the season, in large part to play to the strengths of Carter and underachieving and since- released tackle Albert Haynesworth, Belichick switched back to the 3-4 alignment the Patriots have traditionally used under his tutelage shortly before the team's playoff march. Wilfork (52 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT), the lone defender on the active roster who was present for the Super Bowl XLII setback to the Giants, has flourished with the scheme change and put forth a monster outing in the AFC Championship, in which the four-time Pro Bowl honoree made six tackles, one sack and three stops for losses. Love (33 tackles, 3 sacks) and Deaderick (17 tackles, 2 sacks) are both sound run-stoppers that work in a rotation with veterans Gerard Warren (12 tackles, 1 sack) and Shaun Ellis (14 tackles, 1 sack), who'll be playing in his first Super Bowl in a 12- year career spend predominantly with the rival New York Jets.
Inside Linebackers: The presence of Mayo (95 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT), one of the league's more active and instinctive linebackers, and second-year thumper Brandon Spikes (47 tackles) makes this area probably New England's greatest strength on defense. Spikes missed eight games with a knee injury before returning to action for the regular-season finale, and it's not a coincidence that the Pats were tougher against the run after he came back. The 24-year-old also had a big day in the conference title game, registering a team-best nine tackles and coming up with a key fourth-quarter interception.
Outside Linebackers: While Carter turned out to be New England's best offseason acquisition, the addition of ex-Texan Mark Anderson (29 tackles, 10 sacks) was a very astute pickup as well. The pass-rushing specialist came through with 10 sacks during the regular season and one more in the playoffs, while his ability to create pressure from both a standup linebacker or a down end allows Belichick to give the opposition a variance of looks. The same can be said about Ninkovich (74 tackles, 2 INT), who established a career high with 6 1/2 sacks in addition to holding up very well in run support.
Cornerbacks: Though the Patriots permitted 293.9 passing yards per game prior to the playoffs, that concerning total was offset by the 23 interceptions the team produced, tied for second-most in the NFL. Nearly one-third of those picks came from Arrington (88 tackles, 7 INT, 13 PD), who emerged as New England's steadiest cornerback in his second year as a starter, while counterpart Devin McCourty (87 tackles, 2 INT, 12 PD) garnered seven interceptions of his own during a stellar rookie campaign in 2010 before having his play drop off in a sophomore slump. Finding a capable nickel back after Dowling's year-ending hip injury in September had been a season-long chore, but the play of Moore (7 tackles, 2 INT) since being inserted into that role may have finally resolved that issue.
Safeties: Here's another position group that's been a mess for New England for much of this season but has shown signs of progress as of late. One reason for that improvement has been the return of the hard-hitting Chung (62 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) from a sprained foot that kept him out much of the second half, with a desperate Belichick forced to audition several candidates without much success in the wake of the injury. Ihedigbo (69 tackles), signed away from the Jets back in August, is a strong tackler but isn't considered an asset in coverage, with McCourty recently having seen time on the back end on obvious passing downs to help bolster the overall pass defense.
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2007 online football betting Preview
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
2007 College Football Betting Preview
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
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The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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