Brady's promise weighs about seven pounds
Football Betting Lines
01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After what Tom Brady thought would be a private moment with owner Robert Kraft became public, the world is now aware that the New England Patriots quarterback vows to play better in Super Bowl XLVI.
Brady admitted on the congratulatory podium after New England's victory over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship that he "sucked" and later promised Kraft he would "play a lot better in two weeks." Brady immediately shifted credit to his team's defense in a 23-20 win that sent the Patriots to their fifth Super Bowl appearance since the turn of the century, as he barely did his part with 239 yards passing and a pair of interceptions and no touchdown throws.
"I'm always trying to play better. Every player on this team is trying to play better every week," Brady said. "I'm glad we won that game, glad we're sitting in this position now. I think a lot of guys played really well and that's what it is going to take again this week. I always have private conversations with Mr. Kraft, but they're supposed to be private. I guess they're not."
It's not a surprise Brady would critique his own play so harshly, but in reality he didn't play all that poorly. He may have missed a few open targets, but one of the two picks he threw came on an acrobatic tip drill by two Baltimore defensive backs.
It's easy how quickly some, including Brady, can forget how well he played in against Denver one week earlier in the Divisional Round. The future Hall of Famer and three-time Super Bowl champion carved up the Broncos to the tune of 363 yards while tying an NFL single-game playoff record with six touchdown passes.
A standard of excellence throughout his career, Brady then gathered his 16th all-time postseason win versus the Ravens and is now 16-5 overall in the tournament. His .762 winning percentage is the best in the postseason by a starting quarterback (minimum of 15 starts), slightly ahead of Terry Bradshaw (14-5, .737), and Brady's 16 playoff victories match Joe Montana for the most by a starting quarterback. Only Montana (45) and Brett Favre (44) have more postseason touchdown passes than Brady's 36.
Patriots receiver Deion Branch, the MVP of New England's Super Bowl XXXIX win against Philadelphia, has played with Brady for many years, and it's nothing new for him to hear his teammate firmly self-analyze his own performance.
"Tom's an up-front guy, straight-forward," said Branch. "Trust me, everyone made a lot of mistakes on the field [in the game] except for our defense. Defense and special teams did a great job. As far as offense, we didn't put our best outing on the football field [in the game], and I promise you the next time we step on the field it won't be the same thing. I promise you that."
That promise by Branch, and Brady's own pact with Kraft, can only come to fruition if the entire offense is on the same page for the Patriots' Super Bowl XLVI matchup with the New York Giants. And that starts with the quarterback.
The Patriots know they'll have their hands full on both sides of the ball against the G-men, and that Brady is getting no younger under center as well. Is the window of opportunity closing for the poster boy of the NFL? Not quite yet, but the chances of the Patriots churning out success are becoming limited by the years. Brady, who ended a three-game losing streak in the playoffs by beating Denver, was outplayed by Giants quarterback Eli Manning four years ago for the ultimate prize, the sterling silver trophy created by Tiffany & Co weighing in at seven pounds.
Brady and the Patriots will be out for a measure of revenge against the Giants, the franchise that ruined their quest for a perfect season in Super Bowl XLII and kept the three-time champion quarterback from becoming just the third signal-caller (along with Bradshaw and Montana) to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy four times in a career.
With a chance to rectify his only loss in a Super Bowl and further cement his legacy in the NFL, Brady will face a New York defensive line raging with talent in defensive ends Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora in Indianapolis. He passed for 266 yards and one touchdown, but was sacked five times (twice by Tuck) in the Pats' 17-14 loss to New York in the teams' first Super Bowl meeting.
But guess what, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez weren't even on the Patriots back then, and the pair has since become two of the most dynamic tight ends in the game today. Gronkowski hopes to play despite an ankle injury he sustained in the AFC Championship, and teaming up with Hernandez can only make it difficult for the Giants.
"We'll see how it goes with Rob and some of the other players that are getting treatment," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. "We'll just see how that is when we get back out on the field. We have a lot of tough players on our team. I think that everybody is going to do all they can to be ready physically and mentally -- but especially physically -- to try to compete in the game. We'll just see where all that takes us."
New York also defeated the Patriots, 24-20, in a Week 9 matchup during this regular season, with Brady finishing 28-of-49 for 342 yards with two touchdown passes and a pair of interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked twice. Gronkowski was around for that defeat and did his best, gaining 101 yards and a score on eight receptions. Wes Welker, perhaps Brady's favorite target, ran all over the field for 136 yards on nine catches that day.
Belichick knows Brady, who can claim his own wing in the Hall of Fame with another Super Bowl triumph, has the ability to take the Pats back to the top with an effort slightly better than his last, but is also aware that his quarterback can't do it alone even though Brady may beg to differ.
When all said and done, and the confetti is streaming from the rafters after the final whistle, Brady and the Patriots could be making some room on the shelf with the only other four-time Super Bowl champions: Pittsburgh (six titles), San Francisco (six), Dallas (five) and Green Bay (four). If promises go awry, however, the Giants will be the ones to join that list.
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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.